May running here will liven up the election
(June 30) - Elizabeth May is thinking of running in Guelph. Let’s hope she does.
We got used to being the centre of attention last summer. During the by-election, Guelph had a steady stream of visits from two national party leaders. May herself was here a lot to support Mike Nagy’s campaign. Jack Layton could have saved on bus tickets by renting an apartment in town.
The Liberal and Conservative leaders weren’t here as much. Stephen Harper took a look at Guelph and decided it was a waste of time. The Conservatives were dead ducks from the get go. Stéphane Dion was no help to anyone before, during or after the campaign. When the by-election turned into a general election, the leaders turned their attention to the rest of the country.
If the Green Party parachutes May into Guelph for the next general election, we’ll be thrust back into the spotlight. She’s weighing her chances in a few ridings where her party did reasonably well last October. If not here, it could be Owen Sound where they got 27 per cent of the vote. Nagy took 21 per cent in October. Most Greens believe he would have won the September by-election.
It is possible we’ll be into an election next September. It all depends on Michael Ignatieff. These days he’s doing a wonderful impersonation of the lion in the Wizard of Oz. He jumps around challenging Harper to "put’em up, put’ em up." Before push comes to shove he finds a reason to put them back down.
None of this is doing him any good in the opinion polls. If his numbers don’t improve, the odds of him bringing down the government will dwindle.
If May chooses Guelph, it will get local Greens out of a bind they share with the NDP: lack of a candidate. Both parties ran long, grueling campaigns with credible, high energy candidates. After the votes were counted, Tom King and Mike Nagy both declared they would never do it again.
Both riding associations are now searching for new candidates. If May goes somewhere else, I don’t know that either will have someone in place for a September election. There aren’t a lot of people positioning themselves for the nominations.
In any event, if an election is called this fall the local campaigns will be flying the flag and going through the motions. It is highly unlikely that the decision made last October will change.
Even if local Conservatives get over the Kovach–Barr debacle, Harper doesn’t have the coat tails to carry them anywhere.
With or without May, the Greens won’t win. They need look no further than the NDP experience of last year. It takes more than a high powered star candidate to capture the hearts of Guelph voters.
Jack Layton, I am sorry to say, is doing nothing to inspire anyone to move to the New Democrats. The government’s response to the recession included a concerted attack on unions and the standard of living the labour movement won for workers.
When Tony Clement, Jim Flaherty and Dalton McGuinty insisted that government help for the auto industry must be tied to worker concessions, where was Layton? I never once heard him defend the integrity of collective bargaining. It’s unlikely he’ll do it during an election campaign.
As Ignatieff moves the Liberal Party more to the right, Layton moves the NDP closer to the centre. He wants to occupy ground abandoned by the Liberals. It won’t do him any good.
At least if May runs in Guelph it will liven up an otherwise dismal event.
It won’t change the result, though.
